The Festival Bumper is a good example of race trends evolving, and the trend is away from big-priced winners. Four of the last five winners were returned 7/2 or shorter and the outlier was the 11/1 Willie Mullins trained Ferny Hollow ridden by Paul Townend. All the last ten winners of the Champion Bumper where LTO winners and all of them were aged five or six. Firstly, it’s well established that for all his talent he is ungenuine and has twice pulled himself up in front after trading at 1.01 on Betfair. I napped him on the latter occasion, so am unlikely to forget it.
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If any horse can stop State Man’s procession to glory it might be Irish Point, in the Robcour colours and trained by Gordon Elliott. This time last year, while State Man was getting closest to Constitution Hill, Irish Point was winning a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Naas. He’s since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ at Aintree, and then this season he’s added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. But that Leopardstown race is contested over almost three miles and, as the name suggests, it was contested at the end of last year. It was a terrifically convincing score there but in a slow time beating (relatively) slow horses. I don’t see how that makes him second pick for a Champion Hurdle.
Ascot Tips
Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out. Connections mentioned after that 28th career start, Edwardstone’s first as a ten-year-old, that they’d worked out how to ride him. In any case, that chat is patent hogwash as a record of four wins from six completed starts – including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase – when racing prominently asserts. Further, he won the Tingle Creek (G1) when held up so, you know, it’s not about the run style, is it? That said, such a sound bite implies he’ll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.
Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Jockey Statistics
13 of the last 14 winners had finished top 4 in all completed Chases. All of the last 14 winners were aged 6-8yo (10/13 were 7yo’s). All of the last 14 winners had run in the previous day period. We provide racecards for fixtures on both At The Races and Racing UK, as well as for tomorrow’s racing – for racecards for tomorrow, just click the date selector and check tomorrow’s date.
Horse racing tips: This 16-1 chance won this race a year ago and returns from just a 3lb higher mark
They both take place year-round but generally speaking the best jump racing is in winter and the best Flat action is in summer. With a longer-term record dating back to January 2021 of a similar level, he is undoubtedly a true Bolts Up Daily expert to listen to when looking for value bets for each day’s racing. Northern Ticker ran a clear career best last time and is on the upgrade. Invictus Gold beat nothing at Newmarket but could not have done it any easier.
Premier League Predictions: Lawro sees Man United win but Everton and Villa to lose
Nothing looks value at that sort of a price, but owner J P McManus has met his objective of getting to the Festival with a chance. He was a very smart juvenile hurdler and the Triumph winner in 2021. In the following season he was bested three times by Teahupoo at two mile trips before having a long (nearly two years) spell on the sidelines. Back this season as an older, stronger horse he’s won two of three chases, both ungraded. In between times, he was thumped in the G2 Florida Pearl over three miles.
Durbanville Tips
The main danger is last term’s scorer Billaway, who relishes this stamina test. He looks sure to be finishing best of all and will be many punters’ place option. Depending on your selections, you can place a variety of bet types, including singles and multiples. You can add selections straight from a Bet Builder match centre, making it simpler and quicker to place bets backed by data. CommissionYou’ll need to take into account commission paid to Betfair ranging from 2 – 5% depending on how much you bet with them.
- The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 3 career starts at the track, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-32.
- The Henry de Bromhead pair of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady shouldn’t be dismissed outright.
- Despite owner Michael O’Leary’s efforts to quash the hype, SAMCRO arrives with a sizeable reputation and his racecourse performances say that he deserves it.
- At the top table this term, she’s found life tougher, twice getting a distant view of Sharjah’s tail before finishing closer to Honeysuckle albeit in a steadily run contest.
- Both Jalon D’oudairies & Romeo Coolio, trained by Gordon Elliott, stand out as strong contenders, and it’s difficult to choose between the two.
- Subsequently stepped up to this range, she won either side of a non-completion when badly hampered by a faller.
Horse Racing Tips: Timeform’s Thursday Newcastle shouts include a 10/1 fancy
Nicholls’ 1 from 30 record since 2013 is equally difficult to excuse. And in terms of jumping acuity, he has yet to make a serious mistake in three chases. True, all were small field affairs, but the Arkle, too, will quite likely cut up to a handful of contenders. Still, those fences need to be jumped, and he has to arrive pristine at Prestbury. The leftfield option is First Flow, who was exhilarating at Ascot last time. He’d need supplementing, very likely, but he’d also need to improve another eight pounds on current ratings – less likely.
They’re off in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle
- Faivoir was pulled-up that day and has already proved the form all wrong with a good second behind Gin Coco, while the well-held eighth Rare Middleton has since won by five lengths doing handstands off just 2lb lower at Doncaster.
- The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.
- Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more.
- Play where you know most, and where you’re as comfortable as possible with what you don’t know.
- She has won three times on soft and heavy ground and conditions are in her favour.
Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved. Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably. A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival. Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market. Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.
Irish runners versus UK runners
Five-year-old Marie’s Rock had won a Listed mares race at Taunton, and Love Envoi was a year away from making her debut. The outcome of the race largely depends on Lossiemouth’s ability to stay the 2m 4f distance today. However, her tendency to be keen raises a doubt about her effectiveness over longer distances. Last year’s runner-up, Love Envoi, is a contender for the places once again.
Football Accumulator Tips: Friday night’s 36/1 Punt from the UK & Europe
RELIEF RALLY looks the one to beat after a hugely promising effort when second at Newbury a fortnight ago. That was even more commendable because it was her first start since May. Noisy Jazz is going the right way and could give the selection a race if getting cover early. In a deep contest, the likes of La Pasionaira, Queen Of Soldiers and Treasure are all capable of getting involved at generous prices. Nevertheless, Messrs. Hobbs and Meade are 0 from 30, three places, which is hard to overlook.
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We’ve gone through all FIVE cards on Tuesday so here’s what we’re backing. All our selections can be added straight to your bet365 bet slip (just click the orange links). MITBAAHY didn’t get the breaks when edged out by Raasel at Sandown Park last time, and has sound prospects of gaining his revenge. Simply register, place a £10 wager on the selection of your choice and you will qualify for this unbeatable welcome offer.
The jockeys’ championships
That’s a verbose way of saying he probably achieved a 90-odd level of form on the flat before sights were switched to timber. And an honourable mention for the admirable Martello Sky, whose habit of winning must be delightful for connections. To wit, she has eight first places from just twelve career starts, among them a brace of Listed Hurdles. This will be tougher though the extra distance should mean she’ll be able to get into a better rhythm than was the case when midfield in last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle. Both Western Victory and Nada To Prada look to be pitching above their level.
What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers). Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year. Willie Mullins naturally saddles a phalanx of blue bloods, and his first choice normally wins. Indeed, going back to Ebazayin, a 40/1 scorer for Mullins in 2007, that was his only – and therefore first choice – entry.
Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends
Exhibit A to that end are the two races – both comfortable victories, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company – in one month, the final month of last year. If that’s the good news, the less good news is that Exhibit B must likely follow this weekend at the (outright excellent) Dublin Racing Festival; and Exhibit C requires him to cross the Irish channel in mid-March sans sicknote. Any horse could come down or have a heart murmur in the heat of combat; Shishkin could get beaten by Energumene; a previously unsighted dark horse could emerge in one of the novice chases (though that feels unlikely). Unlike CPS, EA has been slated to start twice and has started – and finished first – twice. He’s had an incident-free prep thus far and has jumped really well in his three chase races to date.
30: Weatherbys Champion Bumper – Marlborough’s preview and tips
English King was impressive at Lingfield last time, Kameko is a Guineas winner who needs to show he has the required stamina and Aidan O’Brien’s battalion are all capable of big improvement. MEETINGOFTHEWATERS is lightly raced and has a beautiful light weight. He will need to settle but if he does, he can be ahead of his mark. The latter won at the Cheltenham Festival under Conor O’Dwyer – and Russell teamed up with the staying chaser for most of his runs after a 658-day injury break. Other top horses he has ridden include Solwhit, the 2013 World Hurdle winner and 2006 Gold Cup hero War Of Attrition.
- It is often said of the Gallagher that it’s more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme – a two mile burn up from flag fall.
- Whilst it’s perfectly fair to assume he didn’t stay there, the balance of his post-injury form requires a lot to be taken on trust regarding retained ability.
- Of the 964 runners in such races in the past ten years, 842 (87%) were aged five to eight (ignoring the Fred Winter).
- Betfair allows you to stream their selection of live races from a minimum £0.50 bet.
- Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys).
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They collectively won 32 of the 39 qualifying races, for a profit of 80 points at SP, and a tasty 165 points at BSP. Only five of the 102 horses sent off shorter than 9/1 prevailed, for a 66 point loss at SP (60 points at BSP). Chuck out horses aged nine and above, and be unforgiving with those aged seven and eight.
The silks are simply the colours each jockey will wear and denote who owns each horse, and then to the right we have the age of the horse and the weight they are set to carry in the race. Weights will vary if this race is a handicap – these are races in which horses are weighted according to their past performances – but in non-handicaps most horses will carry the same. Performances are influenced by factors such as a horse’s fitness, the distance of the race and whether the ground is soft and boggy or firm and fast. You can look at a horse’s past performances to work out whether the ground conditions will suit – and it’s understanding these crucial variables that can give punters the edge. VADREAM looks a spot of value to win this for a second time.
And that’s a wrap for Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2024. Hopefully this has been an entertaining read, and with a little luck, there’s a winner or three in its midst. We’ll all be back to do it again tomorrow – see you then. Mr Vango is a forward goer, so too Apple Away; but the small field means they’ll likely be steady away over this extended trip. Just an even gallop in prospect in all likelihood despite the large field.
He was unlucky at Haydock last Saturday and a return to this trip will suit. TAMFANA can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes. She was desperately unlucky not to win the 1,000 Guineas here in May and stepping up in trip in two French Group 1s has not really suited. She looked much more comfortable when bolting up over this trip at Sandown in August. Sunracing’s columnist Andrew Balding saddles likely favourite Brighton Boy and he was very strong at the finish at York. She’s bred to handle the ground and the only concern would be her 100-day absence, but, given the big money on offer, she will surely be primed for this.
The ground has now eased to Soft with Heavy places for the hurdlers. In comparison Fly Camp, also making his handicap debut, looks on a high mark on form achieved. Also the Cheltenham Festival racing charity fundraiser is set to get going. The exclusive preview will be despatched this afternoon and by signing up now you will get your membership ready for tomorrow. Last year’s winner of this race Morning Reggie has been out of form since.
Master Chewy is a bit of a punt but, if ridden patiently, he might be able to pick up the pieces… And if they go a million on the front then he could just nick the whole enchilada. Of course, he’s priced as though he has little chance and that may be how it transpires.
Shishkin is undeniably more of a horse than Footpad, and a tear up on the front end could see him record the largest winning distance of the meeting. He was never more than two or three lengths off the lead. In 2020, Al Boum Photo raced midfield but never more than about five lengths from a lead shared without contest; and the previous year, the same horse was ridden more patiently after a number of rivals battled for early primacy.